Artificial Intelligence's Potential Boost to Global Trade Projected at 38% by 2040 by WTO Report
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has published its annual World Trade Report 2025, highlighting the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to boost international trade and drive economic growth. The report, presented by WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, calls for WTO members to broaden their commitments under WTO agreements to make AI technologies more affordable and accessible worldwide.
According to the report, AI could increase the value of international trade by nearly 40 percent by 2040. Under varying scenarios of technological adoption and policy support, global trade could rise by 34 to 37 percent, and global GDP could expand by 12 to 13 percent.
However, the report also warns of persistent inequalities in AI access. Okonjo-Iweala emphasizes that with the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. Greater investment in education and training is recommended to address the digital divide and prevent inequality within economies.
The report does not specify which AI technologies would be made more affordable and accessible, nor does it discuss the potential impact on employment in the international trade sector. It also does not provide details on the potential challenges or risks associated with AI integration in trade for developing and middle-income economies.
Quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods have risen sharply from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024. Some low-income economies have tariffs as high as 45 percent, which could potentially hinder the widespread adoption of AI.
Okonjo-Iweala reaffirms the WTO's commitment to supporting inclusive growth and emphasizes that with the right policies, trade can help bridge the digital divide and strengthen workforce skills. For developing and middle-income economies, narrowing the digital infrastructure gap with advanced economies by 50 percent could result in income gains of up to 15 percent.
Trade itself is expected to be a driver of inclusive AI-powered growth, providing access to essential inputs such as semiconductors and raw materials, which already represented USD 2.3 trillion in global trade in 2023. However, the report does not specify the specific industries or sectors that would benefit the most from AI integration in international trade.
The World Trade Report 2025, published by the WTO Secretariat, does not specify a single author but is presented by the World Trade Organization under the leadership of Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. The report urges WTO members to work together to create a more inclusive and accessible AI-driven global economy.
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