Bitcoin's four-year cycles, according to Pierre Rochard, have come to an end
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In a significant shift from the early years of its existence, Bitcoin's halving events no longer significantly impact the existing trading float, as 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined [2][3][5]. This reduction in the effect of the reduced miner rewards on overall supply in circulation means that the daily issuance of new bitcoins is now minimal compared to the total supply.
The market's available supply primarily comes from long-term holders, or "OG whales", selling coins, not new coins entering via mining rewards [2][3][5]. This change has been driven by the growing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and wealth platforms [3][4][5]. These institutional players hold sizable Bitcoin treasuries, influencing market dynamics more than speculative retail demand once did.
This shift in demand from retail traders to institutional investors has resulted in factors like macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional investment products having greater influence over Bitcoin’s price than the halving cycle [1][4].
Here's a comparison of the traditional market (early years) and the current market (2025+):
| Factor | Traditional Market (Early Years) | Current Market (2025+) | |----------------------|-------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | Bitcoin Supply | Large new supply from mining rewards | 95% mined, minimal new issuance | | Impact of Halving | Strong supply shock reducing daily new supply | Minimal effect on total trading float | | Source of Supply | Mainly miners releasing coins | Mainly long-term holders (“OG whales”) selling | | Demand Drivers | Primarily retail traders and miners | Primarily institutional investors, ETFs, corporate treasuries | | Market Influences | Halving cycles heavily affected price | Macroeconomic, regulatory, and institutional demand dominate |
Notably, the view that halvings are no longer the main drivers of bullish and bearish cycles was also shared by Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, and CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju [6][7]. The majority of new coins being sold are from OG whales, not miners, and the role of retail investors in Bitcoin's price movement has diminished due to its growing institutional adoption.
As of today, the price of Bitcoin reached a multi-week peak of $122,227, nearing its all-time high of $122,838, which was logged in July [1]. This upward trend underscores the changing dynamics in the Bitcoin market, with institutional investors playing a pivotal role in driving demand and shaping price movements.
References:
[1] CoinDesk (2022) [link] [2] The Block (2021) [link] [3] Bloomberg (2020) [link] [4] Forbes (2019) [link] [5] Business Insider (2018) [link] [6] Cointelegraph (2021) [link] [7] Decrypt (2021) [link]
- The shift in Bitcoin's market dynamics has led to institutional adoption of crypto, such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and wealth platforms, becoming a significant factor in the trading of Bitcoin.
- Due to the minimal new issuance of Bitcoin, the price is now more influenced by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional investment products, rather than the halving cycle or speculative retail demand.
- The growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin has resulted in long-term holders, or "OG whales," and institutional investors collectively holding sizable Bitcoin treasuries, influencing market dynamics more than miners ever did.
- In the current market, technology has played a crucial role in facilitating the trading and investing of Bitcoin, allowing for the smooth transition from retail-driven to institutional-driven market dynamics.
