Bitcoin's record high price approaching - however, this potential obstacle may impede Bitcoin's upward trend
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In recent analysis, the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and its network activity has been a topic of interest. While specific metrics known as "Activity-Price Divergence (APD)" are not prominently detailed in the latest 2025 reports, related concepts and models linking Bitcoin’s network activity to its price movement have been discussed.
As of mid-2025, Bitcoin’s network indicators such as daily active addresses, daily new addresses, daily transactions, and total transfer volume are tracked alongside price levels. These metrics indicate active participation and health in the network, with recent slight declines or moderate growth in some network activity measures, even as the price shows strong gains year-to-date.
One such analysis model is the Metcalfe Law Discount/Premium (MLDP) Z-Score, which relates network size and activity to Bitcoin’s valuation. This model suggests that Bitcoin’s value correlates with the square of the number of active users or addresses, implying network activity is a fundamental driver of price. Recent commentary indicates that the model indicates the market is neither overheated nor deeply undervalued relative to historical norms, supporting ongoing bullish trends with room for further price appreciation.
Market and technical factors also influence the dynamics between price and network activity. Bitcoin price surges in 2025 are attributed to institutional interest, ETF inflows, halving events, and macro trends, which also affect network activity such as miner revenues and transaction volumes. At the same time, Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional markets like the S&P 500 has grown, meaning risk-off events can simultaneously suppress both price and network activity due to investor sentiment.
Despite the lack of a standardized "Activity-Price Divergence (APD)" metric, analysts continue to integrate network metrics with traditional price and macro indicators to evaluate Bitcoin’s market dynamics comprehensively. For instance, the APD currently stands at -1.5, indicating that price growth is still outpacing on-chain activity. However, on-chain activity has improved, with new addresses up 25.47% and active addresses up 11.11% in a week.
If the price needs to cool to realign with on-chain performance, it may indicate a potential correction. However, if fundamentals continue strengthening through increased address activity and stable supply dynamics, the rally could maintain its momentum. The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio has surged to 1.5923 million, marking a 75% increase. Historically, high S2F readings have accompanied bullish phases as tighter supply boosted investor conviction.
The reduction in miner-led supply pressure can help maintain market stability. The Miners' Position Index (MPI) is at -0.46, indicating that miner outflows remain below their yearly average. Moreover, zero-balance addresses fell 2.69%, meaning more wallets now hold BTC. Such growth expands the user base, deepens liquidity, and strengthens market resilience.
It's worth noting that the Bitcoin Z-Score is at +1.5σ, below the "overheating" mark of +2.5σ. This indicates that the market is not currently in a state of excessive exuberance. The MPI rose by 25.8% in the past 24 hours, but it still reflects restrained selling behavior.
In conclusion, recent trends confirm that Bitcoin’s network activity remains closely tied to its price, supporting models like Metcalfe’s Law as useful frameworks. While there is no standardized or frequently referenced "Activity-Price Divergence (APD)" metric explicitly named in leading 2025 discussions or reports, analysts continue to integrate network metrics with traditional price and macro indicators to assess Bitcoin’s market dynamics comprehensively.
- The Metcalfe Law Discount/Premium (MLDP) Z-Score model, which relates Bitcoin's network size and activity to its valuation, suggests that the square of the number of active users or addresses is a fundamental driver of Bitcoin's price.
- Despite the lack of a standardized "Activity-Price Divergence (APD)" metric, analysts continue to integrate network metrics with traditional price and macro indicators to evaluate Bitcoin’s market dynamics comprehensively.
- If the price needs to cool to realign with on-chain performance, it may indicate a potential correction. However, if fundamentals continue strengthening through increased address activity and stable supply dynamics, the rally could maintain its momentum.
- The Bitcoin Z-Score is currently at +1.5σ, which indicates that the market is not in a state of excessive exuberance, and the Miners' Position Index (MPI) is at -0.46, indicating that miner outflows remain below their yearly average, potentially contributing to market stability.
