Predicted Stock Surge in Cisco Earnings: AI Progress Favors a 63% Probability
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), the global networking giant, is set to disclose its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on August 13, 2025. With a current market capitalization of $281 billion, the company has historically shown a positive trend after earnings announcements.
Over the years, CSCO stock has tended to outperform following earnings announcements, increasing 63% of the time. This trend is particularly notable when the company beats analysts’ expectations, as was the case in the fiscal Q4 2025 earnings. Cisco reported revenue of $14.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.99, beating estimates slightly ($0.98 EPS estimated). This earnings surprise was about 1.32%, accompanied by a 5% year-over-year revenue increase.
However, immediate post-earnings price reactions can vary moderately due to market conditions and investor sentiment. For instance, while the Q4 2025 earnings announcement saw some slight declines in the days following, the long-term trend has shown appreciation outpacing the market.
The correlation between 1-day (1D) and 5-day (5D) post-earnings returns for Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) is detailed in the table below:
| Time Period | Correlation Coefficient | |-------------|------------------------| | 5-year history | 0.52 | | 3-year (more recent) history | 0.55 |
If 1D and 5D display the highest correlation, a trader may position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive.
It's worth noting that peer performance can influence the post-earnings reaction of stocks, including Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO). For a fair comparison, historical data concerning the post-earnings performance of Cisco Systems stock in comparison with the stock performance of peers that announced earnings just prior to Cisco Systems is provided.
Cisco’s stock has seen long-term appreciation outpacing the market, with a 12-month revenue of $56 billion and an operational profit of $12 billion. Analysts predict earnings of 98 cents per share on $14.62 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter.
The median one-day gain of CSCO stock after an earnings announcement is 4.3%. The maximum recorded increase of CSCO stock after an earnings announcement is 7%.
The Trefis RV strategy, a less risky strategy, has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark, leading to strong returns for investors. This strategy involves analysing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the relevant trade.
In summary, Cisco’s earnings announcements historically lead to small positive stock performance or resilience, especially when beats and strong guidance align with growing demand areas such as AI infrastructure. However, immediate post-earnings price reactions vary moderately due to market conditions and investor sentiment. The trend indicates steady growth with occasional short-term fluctuations after earnings reports.
- Investors considering Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) may find it beneficial to observe the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, scheduled for August 13, 2025, as the stock has historically shown a positive trend post-announcement, with a median one-day gain of 4.3% and a maximum recorded increase of 7%.
- For those interested in finance and technology, particularly investing in Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), it's crucial to note that while immediate post-earnings price reactions can vary due to market conditions and investor sentiment, the long-term trend has shown appreciation outpacing the market.
