Probability of XRP ETF approval spikes to 80%, following SEC-Ripple settlement agreement
In a surprising turn of events, financial giant BlackRock has decided against filing for a U.S. spot XRP Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) immediately, despite the conclusion of the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit in August 2025 [1][3][4][5].
The resolution of the legal dispute, which removed a major regulatory obstacle, had sparked expectations that BlackRock would follow suit and enter the XRP ETF market. However, BlackRock's spokesperson confirmed that the firm has no current intention to file for an XRP ETF [4].
The decision appears to be driven by market strategy and demand considerations, rather than regulatory barriers. BlackRock currently dominates the market for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and it seems that the institutional demand for XRP ETFs does not match that of its two top crypto assets [4].
Industry analysts and platforms have suggested a 95% or higher probability that the SEC will approve pending XRP ETF applications this year, reflecting strong regulatory clarity post-litigation [3][5]. However, BlackRock remains cautious due to competition from multiple XRP ETF applications already filed by other asset managers and persistent concerns over XRP's relatively weaker institutional traction and regional trading concentration in Asia [4].
Meanwhile, the crypto market has been witnessing some significant movements. Over $6 billion XRP has been offloaded in the past few days, causing whale demand to turn negative [2]. This has led some market observers to speculate that BlackRock might file for an XRP ETF in the future but have no confirmed timeline [2][5].
In the options market, traders are heavily hedging against further downside risks despite the relief rally. There is a premium for short-dated put options (bearish bets), according to data from Laevitas [6]. Additionally, traders bought over 1.8 billion XRP at each of the $2.70-$2.80 and $2.40-$2.50 zones, reinforcing these levels as key support areas [7].
As of press time, BlackRock had not applied for XRP or Solana (SOL) ETFs [8]. However, Nate Geraci of the ETF Institute has projected that BlackRock could file for SOL and XRP ETFs before the October approval deadline [9]. Geraci also stated that it would make 'zero sense' for BlackRock not to explore beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) [10].
The latest update on the dismissal of the SEC and Ripple Labs appeals triggered an 11% upswing to $3.3 for XRP [11]. Despite the drop in approval odds to 66% on the 7th of August, they have since remained at 95% despite the alleged blockage of crypto ETFs by Democrat SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw [12].
In conclusion, while regulatory clarity makes XRP ETFs more likely to be approved in the near term, BlackRock has not committed to filing one immediately after the legal resolution. Market observers will continue to watch for any signs of BlackRock's entry into the XRP ETF market.
References: 1. SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit concludes in August 2025 2. BlackRock may file for XRP ETF after legal resolution 3. SEC expected to approve XRP ETFs in 2025 4. BlackRock cites insufficient institutional demand for XRP ETF 5. BlackRock's XRP ETF decision tied to market demand considerations 6. Premium for short-dated put options in the crypto market 7. Traders buying XRP at key support levels 8. BlackRock has not applied for XRP or Solana ETFs 9. Geraci projects BlackRock could file for SOL and XRP ETFs 10. Geraci: It would make 'zero sense' for BlackRock not to explore beyond BTC and ETH 11. Latest update on the dismissal of SEC and Ripple Labs appeals triggers XRP upswing 12. Approval odds for a spot XRP ETF remain at 95% despite SEC Commissioner's alleged blockage
- Despite BlackRock's decision not to immediately file for an XRP ETF, industry analysts forecast a high probability of SEC approval for pending XRP ETF applications this year due to strong regulatory clarity post-litigation.
- BlackRock currently dominates the market for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, yet the institutional demand for XRP ETFs seems to not match that of its two top crypto assets, which could be a contributing factor to BlackRock's hesitation.
- BlackRock may file for an XRP ETF in the future after observing market trends, as suggested by some market observers, but a confirmed timeline has yet to be revealed.
- While the crypto market has witnessed significant movements, including a drop in XRP value caused by large-scale offloading, traders are still heavily hedging against downside risks and reinforcing key support areas.
- As of now, BlackRock has not applied for XRP or Solana ETFs, but Nate Geraci, from the ETF Institute, projects that BlackRock could file for both XRP and Solana ETFs before the October approval deadline, as it would make 'zero sense' for BlackRock not to explore beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
