Securities Regulator's Decision Deals Blow to Aspiring XRP ETF Investors
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make a final decision on the approval of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by October 2025, with industry experts assigning around an 80-95% probability for XRP ETF approval in the U.S. by Q4 2025. However, a recent vote by Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has significantly lowered the odds of XRP ETF approval.
Following the positive regulatory momentum created by the SEC's more crypto-friendly stance and Ripple's favourable outcome in its lawsuit against the SEC, several XRP ETF proposals are under review. These include filings by ProShares, Grayscale, and 21Shares, with decision deadlines mostly set in October 2025.
The SEC has introduced new cryptocurrency ETP listing standards, requiring that underlying assets have traded in regulated futures markets for six months. XRP futures began trading on CME on May 19, 2025, making XRP ETFs eligible for an expedited "express lane" approval process.
Despite this, Commissioner Crenshaw's vote against an XRP ETF has raised fresh concerns about the future of crypto-related ETFs. Crenshaw has voted against every single crypto exchange-traded product proposal presented to the SEC. Her influence may slow down or even block future approvals for crypto-related ETFs, including Bitcoin and Ethereum products, as well as XRP.
Crenshaw's criticism extends beyond crypto ETFs and encompasses other areas of crypto regulation, such as liquid staking and stablecoins. She has expressed concerns about the SEC's advisory on liquid staking, stating that it stacks too many assumptions and fails to provide clear direction for market participants.
The SEC's description of USD-pegged stablecoins as "digital dollars" is a point of contention for Crenshaw, as she believes it could mislead investors about the actual risks. This opposition has become a roadblock for Ripple's push to get an XRP ETF approved, as XRP may have checked all the technical boxes but politics and personal viewpoints still play a significant role in the final decision.
The launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on NYSE Arca in July 2025 had contributed to optimism about Ripple securing approval for its own XRP ETF. However, just weeks ago, those odds were above 90%. The current status of XRP ETF approval is uncertain, with the SEC's approach to other areas of crypto regulation, including liquid staking and stablecoins, a subject of Crenshaw's criticism.
The editorial process awaits and watches, unsure how the SEC will move forward regarding crypto ETFs. The SEC's vote on new crypto products continues to add uncertainty to XRP's trajectory, with Crenshaw's vote as the only democrat currently serving on the SEC playing a key role in shaping what comes next for crypto ETFs.
References:
[1] CoinDesk. (2025). XRP ETFs on Track for Approval in Q4 2025, Analysts Say. [online] Available at: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/19/xrp-etfs-on-track-for-approval-in-q4-2025-analysts-say/
[2] Yahoo Finance. (2025). XRP ETF Approval Odds at 79-88%, Price Targets Rise. [online] Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-etf-approval-odds-79-88-price-targets-rise-170000770.html
[3] Cointelegraph. (2025). XRP Futures Trading Paves Way for Expedited ETF Approval. [online] Available at: https://cointelegraph.com/news/xrp-futures-trading-paves-way-for-expedited-etf-approval
[4] Bloomberg. (2025). XRP ETF Decisions Due in October, Several Proposals Under Review. [online] Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/xrp-etf-decisions-due-in-october-several-proposals-under-review
[5] Forbes. (2025). Bullish Predictions for XRP ETF Launch Price Targets. [online] Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2025/07/20/bullish-predictions-for-xrp-etf-launch-price-targets/?sh=6356910a6a7d
The SEC's decision on XRP ETF approvals, including those by ProShares, Grayscale, and 21Shares, remains uncertain due to Commissioner Crenshaw's voting pattern against crypto-related ETFs, with her recent vote against an XRP ETF adding to the uncertainty. Despite the meeting of technical requirements for XRP ETFs and the potential expedited approval due to XRP futures trading, technology advancements in crypto investing, such as liquid staking and stablecoins, continue to face regulatory challenges, with Commissioner Crenshaw expressing concerns about the SEC's approach to these areas.
