Soviet era spacecraft, initially bound for Venus, expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere this week.
Title: Return of the Soviet Reentry Capsule: Cosmos 482
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Soon, a piece of Soviet space history is poised to make a dramatic comeback. The Cosmos 482, a malfunctioned vehicle bound for Venus decades ago, is set to reenter Earth's atmosphere as early as this week.
The Cosmos 482's timeline is shrouded in mystery. Its shape, size, and the ever-unpredictable space weather make accurate predictions a challenge. Although most projections point to a return around May 10, uncertainties inevitably remain.
Researchers suspect the returning object to be the probe or "entry capsule," designed to withstand the extreme pressures and temperatures of landing on Venus, whose atmosphere is 90 times denser than ours. This durability means it could survive its abrupt homecoming, posing a small but non-zero risk for those on the ground.
Meteors and space debris frequently approach Earth, but upon entry, they disintegrate due to friction and pressure. However, if the Cosmos 482 is indeed a Soviet reentry capsule, its substantial heat shield might help it survive the descent, potentially crashing to the ground.
The probability of the object striking people is minimal, yet researchers caution against complacency. As astrophysicist Dr. Jonathan McDowell puts it, "You wouldn't want it bashing you on the head."
Racing for Venus
The Soviet Space Research Institute, or IKI, emerged in the mid-1960s during the intense space race against the United States. The IKI's Venera program launched a series of probes toward Venus in the 1970s and '80s, with several successfully sending back data and images.
In 1972, two spacecraft under the Venera program were launched: V-71 No. 670 and V-71 No. 671[1]. Only V-71 No. 670 made it to Venus, operating for about 50 minutes on the planet's surface[1]. V-71 No. 671, however, remained entrapped in Earth's orbit, unable to make the transfer to Venus after a rocket failure[1].
Soviet vehicles in Earth's orbit were given the Cosmos name and a numerical designation for tracking purposes from the 1960s onwards[1]. Several fragments were created from V-71 No. 671's failure. At least two have already ceased their orbit, but researchers believe the one plunging back to our planet is the cylindrical entry capsule or Cosmos 482, given the object's behavior in orbit.
"It's clearly bowling ball-ish," Space Debris Expert Marlon Sorge notes, speaking of the object's impressive density[1]. The Soviet probe was equipped with a parachute, but after decades in space, it's highly unlikely that it can be deployed at the right time or slow the object's descent[1].
Reentry Risks
The probability of Cosmos 482 causing catastrophic damage is about 1 in 25,000[1]. This is a lower risk than other space debris, with several defunct rocket parts entering Earth's atmosphere annually. Nevertheless, experts urge vigilance if the object does hit the ground[1]. It is most likely to land between 52 degrees North and 52 degrees South latitudes, covering significant landmasses and countries[1].
However, there's a good chance that the object will end up in an ocean, similar to the risk of being struck by lightning in a lifetime[1]. If the debris lands on dry land, it's crucial to avoid contact as it might leak dangerous fuels or pose other risks[1].
Contact the authorities, advises Sorge, and do not attempt to touch the debris[1]. Under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, Russia retains ownership of any surviving debris and may attempt to recover it[1]. The incident highlights the importance of continued efforts to minimize spacecraft crash-landings on Earth[1].
"What goes up must come down," emphasizes Parker Wishik of The Aerospace Corporation. "We're here talking about it more than 50 years later, which underscores the significance of debris mitigation and the need for ongoing dialogue within the space community because what you put up in space today might affect us for decades to come."
[1] Space.com – Russia's 53-Year-Old Venus Probe Returning to Earth Spotlights Space Debris Worries[2] Techtimes – Soviet Spacecraft from 1972 Rivers Through Earth's Atmosphere, Experts Predict Where and How It May Crash[3] The Verge – Soviet Spacecraft Launched in 1972 Expected to Return to Earth in May[4] Live Science – Soviet Spacecraft from 1972 Likely to Crash to Earth Next Week
- The reentry of Cosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972 towards Venus but failed to reach its destination due to a rocket failure, has triggered concerns about space debris and the importance of debris mitigation.
- Although the odds of Cosmos 482 causing catastrophic damage are low (approximately 1 in 25,000), experts urge vigilance, highlighting that it will most likely land between 52 degrees North and 52 degrees South latitudes, covering significant landmasses and countries.
- The return of Cosmos 482, which was given the name Cosmos 482 after being placed in Earth's orbit, is a stark reminder of the Soviet Space Research Institute's (IKI) Venera program, which sought to explore Venus in the 1970s and '80s.
- The return of Cosmos 482, a cylindrical entry capsule, underscores the significance of ongoing dialogue within the space community about debris mitigation, as what we put up in space today might affect us for decades to come.
