Strong Indications of Highly Bullish Bitcoin Scenario Not Seen Since Year 2020
**"Bitcoin might be all set for its most bullish surge since 2020," according to analysts at BTC financial firm Swan. Here's why they're feeling bullish:
First off, gold – traditionally a safe haven – has had an epic run this year, skyrocketing 30% and hitting a historical high of over $3,400 per ounce in April. But it's taking a rest now, down about 3%, whereas Bitcoin is up around 4%. This pattern, they assert, usually signals something bigger on the horizon. After all, the last time BTC started catching up like this, it shot up from $70,000 to $108,000.
Another positive sign is the global surge in liquidity, represented by the M2 money supply, which is increasing for the first time since 2021 – up by 4% over the past twelve months, according to the St. Louis Fed. Think of it as fuel for the Bitcoin fire, according to these analysts. After all, every major Bitcoin bull market follows this pattern: an expanding money supply, softening financial conditions, and weakening trust in fiat.
Volatility has also spiked to levels last seen in March 2020. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – a measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility – has calmed down, but uncertainty remains high, and markets are on edge. Bitcoin, however, thrives in chaos because it offers certainty, finality, and neutrality when everything else is falling apart.
Economist Timothy Peterson also chimed in, pointing out that the VIX – an indicator that dropped from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days – suggests a "risk-on" environment, favoring assets like Bitcoin. His tracking model, which has been accurate 95% of the time, predicts a BTC price of $135,000 in the next few weeks if the VIX stays low.
The Swan analysts also highlighted the MVRV ratio, a measure that just bounced off 1.74 – a sign teeing up every major Bitcoin bull market. They also commented that sellers seem to be running out of steam between $90,000 and $100,000, and the price is moving above the cost basis. This is a classic sign of a market preparing to go vertical.
Lastly, economist Timothy Peterson noted that every 25 basis points decrease in interest rates corresponds roughly to a 10% increase in Bitcoin price. Given the speed at which interest rates are falling, a 75 basis point decline within one to two months could put Bitcoin at around $130,000.
In short, all signs are pointing to a bullish Bitcoin future, as long as the various factors line up."
([1] [2] [3] Enrichment Data: The query appears to be more focused on the factors that indicate a bullish setup for Bitcoin in 2022. However, the search results primarily discuss the current market setup for Bitcoin in 2025. The relevant factors for a potential bullish setup in 2022 could include:
- Market sentiment and external factors, such as geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, which can significantly impact Bitcoin's prospects.Regulatory environment: Clarity and changes in regulatory environments can influence Bitcoin's performance.Increased institutional investment in Bitcoin can signal a bullish trend, including the creation of ETFs and other financial products that make Bitcoin more accessible to mainstream investors.Monetary policy, inflation rates, and other economic indicators, such as the M2 money supply, can affect Bitcoin's performance.On-chain analytics and technical indicators, such as the MVRV ratio, accumulation trends, and long-term vs. short-term holder ratios, can provide insights into market health and potential future moves.]
- The rising price of gold and decreasing gold's performance compared to Bitcoin suggest a potential bullish surge for Bitcoin since gold is traditionally a safe haven.
- An expanding money supply and softening financial conditions, as indicated by the increasing M2 money supply, might create a favorable environment for a bullish Bitcoin market.
- Lowering interest rates could correspond to a significant increase in Bitcoin's price, potentially making it reach around $130,000, according to economist Timothy Peterson's analysis.
- Market indicators such as the VIX and MVRV ratio are showing signs of a bullish Bitcoin setup, with the VIX suggesting a risk-on environment and the MVRV ratio, teeing up every major Bitcoin bull market.
