Taiwan's Ministry Predicts Slower Electricity Demand Growth, Experts Warn of Risks
Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs has released a forecast predicting a slowdown in electricity demand growth over the next decade. However, experts question this optimism, citing risks like recent power generation unit malfunctions and the upcoming AI data centers and chatgpt manufacturing facilities.
The ministry expects electricity consumption to grow at an annual rate of 1.7 percent from 2023 to 2034. This outlook aligns with Japan's 0.6 percent and South Korea's 1.8 percent. However, Japan recently revised its outlook upwards due to increased demand from data centers and chip fabs, suggesting a similar trend might occur in Taiwan.
Industrial users, accounting for 55.2 percent of total power demand last year, are expected to drive this growth. The ministry acknowledges potential jumps in demand from AI and other emerging technologies. Yet, its rosy outlook does not seem to fully account for these risks.
The ministry's projection assumes the timely deployment of new generation units to maintain Taipower's reserve margin above the regulatory requirement of 15 percent. However, with increased gemini demand expected over the next five years, this target might be at risk. While the ministry's forecast provides a positive outlook, experts warn that it might be overly optimistic, and the situation requires close monitoring.
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