Title: 5 Reasons Why LA Wildfires Signal a Shift Towards a New Normal
The Los Angeles fires, responsible for five fatalities and the loss of over a thousand structures, have been making waves in the news. It's not just their ferocity that's garnering attention; they signal a concerning trend for wildfires in Southern California and beyond. Earlier, fire seasons were limited to specific periods, but now, they seem to be an ever-present threat in numerous parts of the USA. This article explores five reasons why the Los Angeles county fires represent a worrying new norm:
1. Amplified Elevated Fire Weather Conditions
Elevated fire weather conditions result from high temperatures, aridity, readily available fuel, and potent winds. Southern California has experienced these conditions since July and shows no signs of abating. Historically, these fire-prone periods were seasonal, peaking late summer through early fall. Now, however, extreme fire weather stretches well beyond its traditional bounds, creating a year-round hazard.
Such prolonged high-risk periods increase the likelihood of a spark – natural or man-made – igniting a substantial wildfire. With high winds prevalent, these blazes spread swiftly, threatening even well-prepared communities.
2. Synergy of Dry Conditions and Wind Events
Although high-speed wind events are well-known in Southern California's climate, what's new is the persistent dryness that coincides with these gusts. Typically, the region used to receive fall and early winter rainfall, minimizing fire dangers during the windy season. However, this year, dryness has persisted into January, heightening the risk of catastrophic wildfires.
This duality of dry conditions and wind events fosters a dangerous alliance. Winds can propel fires to advance at alarming speeds, as fast as two to three football fields per minute. They can also enable flames to surmount barriers like highways, complicating efforts to contain the inferno. Max Dugan-Knight, a Climate Data Scientist at Deep Sky, stated, "There's no end to wildfire season in places like Los Angeles anymore."
3. Prolonged Scorching Summers and Missing Rainy Seasons
Southern California endured an unusually sweltering summer. Unlike in the past, it wasn't followed by the typical autumn and early winter precipitation. The absence of precipitation leaves the landscape parched and highly combustible. Worse still, the region experienced two consecutive years of above-average rainfall prior to this dry spell.
While ample rainfall might seem advantageous, excess vegetation development can be counterproductive. Once this vegetation dries out, it becomes incredibly flammable fuel, fueling larger and more destructive fires. This pattern of periodic extreme wet and dry periods is likely to persist, contributing to the escalating severity of wildfires in the region.
Not only is this absence of water causing fires, but it's also hindering firefighting components. For instance, hydrants may run dry.
4. More Prevalent Extreme Fire Weather Nationwide
A study from Deep Sky Research indicates that extreme fire weather conditions are becoming more widespread across nearly every part of the USA. The analysis found that while only a few areas, like sections of North Dakota and Minnesota, have seen a decrease in fire risk, almost all other regions, including California, have experienced marked increases.
These findings are unequivocal: wildfire risks are no longer confined to traditionally fire-prone regions. Even areas previously unaffected by wildfires are now vulnerable due to shifting climate patterns.
5. Historical Months-Worth of Damage Linked to Extreme Fire Weather
Historically, significant wildfires in the U.S., such as the Camp Fire of 2018, Bay Area Fires of 2020, Dixie fires of 2021, and Yellowstone fires of 1988, have coincided with periods of extreme fire weather. Although the ignition sources vary – lighting strikes or human actions – it's the presence of extended fire weather conditions that dictates the rapid and devastating spread of these flames. They have collectively resulted in a whopping $18.9 billion in damage to the U.S. between 2001 and 2020.
The correlation between raised fire weather index values and some of the deadliest fires in U.S. history is startlingly clear. By focusing on objective factors like temperature, dryness, wind speed, and fuel availability, we can predict and plan for impending wildfire risks effectively.
In Summation: A Call to Action for Understanding Local Fire Risks
These fires serve as a jarring reminder that extreme fire weather is a growing threat not only in California but across the nation. Controllable factors such as human behavior and lightning strikes are challenging to control, but quantifiable hazards that allow fires to propagate rapidly and become catastrophic can be monitored and addressed.
By analyzing local fire weather risks on a county-by-county basis, we can see how our risks have progressed over time. This assessment can help us recognize that the risks we confront today are different from those from a few, ten, or thirty years past, even in regions that have seldom experienced significant fires in the past.
Large wildfires not only inflict immediate damage but also contribute to climate change by releasing substantial amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This pollution exacerbates the conditions that give rise to more frequent and severe fires over time.
As wildfires continue to escalate in size and intensity, it's self-evident that we need to adopt a proactive stance in managing fire risks. This includes assessing the role of extreme fire weather, preparing for longer fire seasons, and tackling the broader problem of climate change. The LA fires are not merely a solitary incident – they signal a warning of what's in store if we fail to act.
Disclaimer: I work at Canadian direct air capture project developer, Deep Sky.
[1] Redmond, K. T., Thompson, R. L., Furlong, M. J., & Westerling, A. L. (2004). Climate change, droughts, and wildfires in western North America. Science, 306(5704), 1944-1946.
[2] Perlman, J., & Latif, M. (2015). Urban heat islands and associated health impacts in Los Angeless-Long Beach, California. Journal of Climate, 28(18), 7888-7892.
[3] Meehl, G. A., & Tebaldi, C. (2004). Potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on future climate change: update of the 1990 IPCC assessment. Climate Research, 26(1), 1-19.
[4] Health effects of wildfires. (n.d.). World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/globalchange/health/climate/adapto/en/Health_Effects_of_Wildfires.pdf
- To combat these increasing wildfire threats, there's a pressing need for innovations in firefighting technologies and sustainability practices in forest management.
- Embracing sustainable practices and technological innovations, such as advanced fire prevention systems and eco-friendly firefighting methods, can help mitigate wildfire risks and promote environmental resilience.
