Weekly Updates: Asteroid Cancellations, Unusual Bigfoot Encounter with a Jazz Twist
In a recent update, NASA and international astronomers have ruled out the impact probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032, effectively dismissing earlier concerns that peaked at about 3% in 2025. The current impact probability for a collision with Earth has been reduced to virtually zero, with the probability dropping to about 0.004% by late February 2025 and further decreasing to less than 0.0000081% by mid-June 2025[1][3][4].
However, the asteroid's potential lunar collision probability has increased, currently standing at approximately 4.3% for a possible lunar impact on December 22, 2032. This upward revision is based on new data from the James Webb Space Telescope and refined orbital calculations by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies[2][3].
If Asteroid 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the impact could cause severe regional damage similar to a large conventional explosion or airburst. Initial models suggested a blast impacting areas across the eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa, and southern Asia, with potential for broken windows and minor structural damage if it exploded over a populated area. However, the probability of this scenario has been drastically reduced to near zero[1][3].
If the asteroid were to impact the Moon, the effects would be limited to crater formation on the lunar surface, with no impact on Earth safety or orbital dynamics. The Moon's environment routinely experiences such impacts without broader consequences[2][3].
Monitoring of Asteroid 2024 YR4 will continue until the asteroid becomes observable again in 2028 to further refine these probabilities.
References: [1] NASA, "Asteroid 2024 YR4: Asteroid Fact Sheet," 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/asteroid-2024-yr4 [2] NASA, "Asteroid 2024 YR4: Lunar Impact Probability Increases," 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/asteroid-2024-yr4-lunar-impact [3] BBC News, "Asteroid 2024 YR4: Earth Impact Probability Reduced," 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56939988 [4] The Guardian, "Asteroid 2024 YR4: Earth Impact Probability Nearly Zero," 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/28/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-impact-probability-nearly-zero
- The increased conversation about Asteroid 2024 YR4 has expanded beyond environmental-science circles, with discussions also taking place in realms such as space-and-astronomy, technology, and even lifestyle media, given the significance of the situation.
- Despite the reduced probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, scientists and engineers continue to leverage science and technology, focusing on developing solutions to counteract future potential threats and safeguard both the environment and human lifestyle from space hazards.
